- Pramod Raj Sedhain (after returning from Pakistan)
After decades of military rule and political instability, this is the first time in the Pakistan's history that a civilian government will transfer power through ballot box. The landmark elections set for May 11 is in full swing. Despite the security challenges, Pakistan’s politicians have started boosting their election campaigning efforts for the final stretch. The Election Commission has set up more than 73,000 polling stations, with 20,000 earmarked as 'sensitive or most sensitive'. Pakistan will deploy more than 600,000 security personnel, including police, paramilitary rangers, tribal police and national volunteers in the upcoming election. The army has announced that 70,000 troops will be deployed in four provinces on the Election Day. According to Election Commission, five security personnel will be stationed at each polling station, and seven to 10 at sensitive and most sensitive polling stations respectively. The National Assembly of Pakistan consists of 342 seats - 272 general seats, 60 reserved seats for the women and 10 seats for the non-Muslims. Likewise, there are 272 general seats, 4671 candidates on the ground and 86,189,802 voters. Women represent about 44 percent of the total vote and the number of women contesting general seats has gone up to 161. In 2008, 64 women ran for general seats and 18 made it to the parliament. Punjab has a share of 148 seats, Sindh has 61 seats, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province has 35 seats, and Balochistan has 14 seats, with 12 seats going to the FATA and two to the federal capital. A political party must secure 172 seats (51 percent of total seats) in the National Assembly of Pakistan to obtain a majority or else the elections will result in a hung parliament. If a political party with the most votes is either unable or unwilling to form a coalition government within a certain time-frame, a runoff election will be held. About 4.5 million registered voters are residing in other countries, out of which 3.5 million are in the Middle East. The Election Commission has earlier told the apex court that voting for Pakistanis abroad would ensure in 10 countries for the first time in the country's history.
The country will elect direct 849 members of the National and Provincial assemblies of Pakistan, who will further elect the Prime Minister of Pakistan at the national level and the Chief Ministers of Pakistan at the provincial level. Out of the total 15,515 candidates for the general seats in the National Assembly and other provincial assemblies, 355 women are currently in the fray. Women representatives in all assemblies have seen a rise. Elections will be held for Punjab Assembly, Sindh Assembly, Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Assembly and Balochistan Assembly as well National Assembly at the same time.
Polls indicate there could be a record turnout, higher than the 44 percent in the 2008 elections. Pakistan held six general elections in the past 22 years in 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002. However, this election has its own significance. A total of 172 out of 272 directly elected seats are required for a governing majority in the National Assembly, although no single party is expected to achieve that.
At present a caretaker government is in place. An independent Election Commission has been created to oversee the polls, and international organizations such as the EU have agreed to send observers. Most commentators expect the election to produce another coalition government after a possibly prolonged period of political wrangling. Voter lists have been computerized for the first time. The Election Commission of Pakistan has allotted election symbols to 144 political parties. In 2008, 49 political parties had applied for the election symbols with the EC. In 2002, 77 political parties took part in the election process conducted by the then military ruler. Pakistan’s most important demographic in this election — are the youth. An estimated 40 million young Pakistanis will be eligible to vote for the first time. Pakistan's population totals roughly 190 million, of whom an estimated two-thirds are under 30. About 92 million of the total are adults aged 18 or over.
New Phenomena of Election Ground
In 2008, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) garnered more than 10 million votes. A party attracting some 17 million youth votes would have a powerful position after this month's election. PPP came to power in 2008 on a wave of sympathy paving the way for Asif Ali Zardari to become the President. This brought an end to Pakistan’s most recent period of military rule. PPP-led government and President Zardari completed the term despite the mismanagement, disqualified administration, growing unemployment and rising debts, loggerheads with the judiciary and military, lack of security, lack of public delivering services, unrelenting political, social turmoil and growing instability. However, despite all these, PPP's reputation and influence have witnessed a shrink. The PPP has been hurt by strong anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate. Several pre-election polls indicate that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will be the winner in Pakistan's upcoming general election. The Punjab province, considered as a political power base, is Nawaz Sharif's birthplace, which is a home to sixty percent of total Pakistanis. Sharif twice served as Prime Minister and heads the second largest political party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). He rose to national prominence with the support of the army in the mid 1980s and has been known as a pro-army politician. In October 1999, Sharif was dislodged from power by a bloodless coup staged by his hand-picked army chief, General Pervez Musharraf. Currently, he holds the support of right-wing forces, the business community, the commercial and professional middle class as well as some Middle East countries.
Meanwhile, some believe that former cricket star Imran Khan could become Pakistan’s next Prime Minister. After struggling for more than 15 years to grow his party, Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf party has massive youth support. They have shown up new phenomena in unprecedented numbers at rallies all across Pakistan. Polls show that an Oxford graduate Khan certainly will emerge as a new strong force in Pakistani politic either in the ruling coalition or as an opposition. Social media also plays an effective role especially among affluent younger voters (fewer than 1 in 10 Pakistanis enjoy internet access). According to Reliable Alexa ranking, Khan's election campaign website is one of the top 145 most visited sites in Pakistan. Other political parties like Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, Awami National Party (ANP), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement or MQM among others too hold regional as well religious influence.
Pakistani public has witnessed uncertainties and insecurity for the last several years. They remain highly optimistic about the outcome of the elections. Terrorism, security, stability and economy have been the fundamental issues that Pakistan is facing at the moment. People hope to improve the worst law and order condition and promote good governance. Escalating violation, political, judicial and military tensions, corruption, among others are other problems currently faced by the Pakistani people. Replacing a democratically elected government with another is not a surprise. However, it certainly is a milestone of Pakistan's future course.
