Pakistan Elections: Hope and Fear

- Pramod Raj Sedhain (after returning from Pakistan)

After decades of military rule and political instability, this is the first time in the Pakistan's history that a civilian government will transfer power through ballot box. The landmark elections set for May 11 is in full swing. Despite the security challenges, Pakistan’s politicians have started boosting their election campaigning efforts for the final stretch. The Election Commission has set up more than 73,000 polling stations, with 20,000 earmarked as 'sensitive or most sensitive'. Pakistan will deploy more than 600,000 security personnel, including police, paramilitary rangers, tribal police and national volunteers in the upcoming election. The army has announced that 70,000 troops will be deployed in four provinces on the Election Day. According to Election Commission, five security personnel will be stationed at each polling station, and seven to 10 at sensitive and most sensitive polling stations respectively. The National Assembly of Pakistan consists of 342 seats - 272 general seats, 60 reserved seats for the women and 10 seats for the non-Muslims. Likewise, there are 272 general seats, 4671 candidates on the ground and 86,189,802 voters. Women represent about 44 percent of the total vote and the number of women contesting general seats has gone up to 161. In 2008, 64 women ran for general seats and 18 made it to the parliament.
Punjab has a share of 148 seats, Sindh has 61 seats, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province has 35 seats, and Balochistan has 14 seats, with 12 seats going to the FATA and two to the federal capital. A political party must secure 172 seats (51 percent of total seats) in the National Assembly of Pakistan to obtain a majority or else the elections will result in a hung parliament. If a political party with the most votes is either unable or unwilling to form a coalition government within a certain time-frame, a runoff election will be held. About 4.5 million registered voters are residing in other countries, out of which 3.5 million are in the Middle East. The Election Commission has earlier told the apex court that voting for Pakistanis abroad would ensure in 10 countries for the first time in the country's history.
The country will elect direct 849 members of the National and Provincial assemblies of Pakistan, who will further elect the Prime Minister of Pakistan at the national level and the Chief Ministers of Pakistan at the provincial level. Out of the total 15,515 candidates for the general seats in the National Assembly and other provincial assemblies, 355 women are currently in the fray. Women representatives in all assemblies have seen a rise. Elections will be held for Punjab Assembly, Sindh Assembly, Khyber Pakhtun Khwa Assembly and Balochistan Assembly as well National Assembly at the same time.
Polls indicate there could be a record turnout, higher than the 44 percent in the 2008 elections. Pakistan held six general elections in the past 22 years in 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002. However, this election has its own significance. A total of 172 out of 272 directly elected seats are required for a governing majority in the National Assembly, although no single party is expected to achieve that.
At present a caretaker government is in place. An independent Election Commission has been created to oversee the polls, and international organizations such as the EU have agreed to send observers. Most commentators expect the election to produce another coalition government after a possibly prolonged period of political wrangling. Voter lists have been computerized for the first time. The Election Commission of Pakistan has allotted election symbols to 144 political parties. In 2008, 49 political parties had applied for the election symbols with the EC. In 2002, 77 political parties took part in the election process conducted by the then military ruler. Pakistan’s most important demographic in this election — are the youth. An estimated 40 million young Pakistanis will be eligible to vote for the first time. Pakistan's population totals roughly 190 million, of whom an estimated two-thirds are under 30. About 92 million of the total are adults aged 18 or over.
New Phenomena of Election Ground
In 2008, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) garnered more than 10 million votes. A party attracting some 17 million youth votes would have a powerful position after this month's election. PPP came to power in 2008 on a wave of sympathy paving the way for Asif Ali Zardari to become the President. This brought an end to Pakistan’s most recent period of military rule. PPP-led government and President Zardari completed the term despite the mismanagement, disqualified administration, growing unemployment and rising debts, loggerheads with the judiciary and military, lack of security, lack of public delivering services, unrelenting political, social turmoil and growing instability. However, despite all these, PPP's reputation and influence have witnessed a shrink. The PPP has been hurt by strong anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate. Several pre-election polls indicate that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) will be the winner in Pakistan's upcoming general election. The Punjab province, considered as a political power base, is Nawaz Sharif's birthplace, which is a home to sixty percent of total Pakistanis. Sharif twice served as Prime Minister and heads the second largest political party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). He rose to national prominence with the support of the army in the mid 1980s and has been known as a pro-army politician. In October 1999, Sharif was dislodged from power by a bloodless coup staged by his hand-picked army chief, General Pervez Musharraf. Currently, he holds the support of right-wing forces, the business community, the commercial and professional middle class as well as some Middle East countries.
Meanwhile, some believe that former cricket star Imran Khan could become Pakistan’s next Prime Minister. After struggling for more than 15 years to grow his party, Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf party has massive youth support. They have shown up new phenomena in unprecedented numbers at rallies all across Pakistan. Polls show that an Oxford graduate Khan certainly will emerge as a new strong force in Pakistani politic either in the ruling coalition or as an opposition. Social media also plays an effective role especially among affluent younger voters (fewer than 1 in 10 Pakistanis enjoy internet access). According to Reliable Alexa ranking, Khan's election campaign website is one of the top 145 most visited sites in Pakistan. Other political parties like Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, Awami National Party (ANP), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement or MQM among others too hold regional as well religious influence.
Pakistani public has witnessed uncertainties and insecurity for the last several years. They remain highly optimistic about the outcome of the elections. Terrorism, security, stability and economy have been the fundamental issues that Pakistan is facing at the moment. People hope to improve the worst law and order condition and promote good governance. Escalating violation, political, judicial and military tensions, corruption, among others are other problems currently faced by the Pakistani people. Replacing a democratically elected government with another is not a surprise. However, it certainly is a milestone of Pakistan's future course.

French victory in Mali: What next?

Pramod Raj Sedhain An average of 2.7 million euros is being spent per day in the ongoing "Operation Serval" since it was launched on January 11. The month-long operation saw massive air raid as well as ground offence. Al-Qaeda in Mali has no longer control of the northern region. But hundreds of militants are said to have been hiding in the vast and complicated area in the far northeast Mountain area of the country. They have been sheltering in one of Africa's harshest and least-known mountain ranges - the Adrar des Ifoghas. French-led military forces are still fighting to secure the north of the country. French fighter jets continue to pound the Militinic hideout Mountain area, including attacks on training camps and arms depots. The number of militants however remains in dispute, with estimates varying from a few hundred fighters to a few thousand. More than 6,000 troops have been promised by the West African Interim Force. There are also about 2,000 Chadian troops fighting alongside the French forces, who entered Mali on January 10. Mali's largest northern city witnessed blasts and street violence after a raid against Islamist insurgent guerrilla. Meanwhile, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a military checkpoint in Gao, wounding a soldier, an act that provided further evidence of the continued threat of the militants. Militants have not been completely flushed out of the whole territory. France's humanitarian mission dramatically increased the numbers of its boots on the ground attesting to the likelihood of greater French involvement. France said the recent Mali troop deployments weren't aimed at perpetuating Paris's grip on Africa, but at assisting allies. Operation in Mali counts 4,600 soldiers, 3,500 of which are serving on the ground. In the first week of beginning of the operation, the top US commander in Africa, General Carter Ham warned against "premature military action". He said immediate intervention would be likely to fail and set back the situation "even further". Some analysts, however, say the military intervention is not well-planned. After the third week of successful operation US analysis has seen a drastic change. US Defense minister Leon Panetta said that French forces rolled back Islamist militants in Mali "much faster" than the United States expected. "They have made tremendous progress; I give them a lot of credit," he added. French small special force gained surprise results in Mali. Many analysts said they were surprise with the French military victory over well-trained and heavily-armed Al Queda linked extremist fighters. But question remains: What might happen next in Mali? According to French Le Parisien daily, war in Mali had cost 70 million euros - an average of 2.7 million euros per day since it was launched on January 11. That figure compared to an average cost of 1.6 million euros per day for the intervention that toppled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and 1.4 million euros per day for the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. Le Parisien Daily quoted the defence minister as saying that "transportation of soldiers and military hardware had cost 50 million euros so far". France had mobilised 10,000 tons of military material in 15 days in Mali. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the war represented “a great effort” for France, which is struggling to balance its budget while tackling with the low growth and high unemployment. But, Mali advance shows France's military superpower and regional influence. The French and Chadian forces, with remnants of the Malian army, have since retaken northern towns from the Islamist rebels, who had enforced a brutal Sharia law there for 10 months. But they are now engaged in raids on the militant groups who have pulled back to desert and mountain hideouts. The four weeks of French Operation have ousted fighters allied with al-Qaeda from Mali's main northern towns. French President Francois Hollande was on a one-day trip to the Mali accompanied by his ministers for Defence, Foreign affairs and Development. President Hollande said, "Terrorism has been repelled but not wiped out". "I'm saying to you the fight has not yet ended, terrorist groups are weakened, they have suffered heavy losses, but have not disappeared. France will remain with you as long as it is necessary." He also made it clear that French troops will stay in Mali until rebels are defeated and democracy and human rights prevail. Hollande told Malians it was time for Africans to take the lead but that France would not abandon them. What next ? Once a major draw for Islamic scholars from around the world, the extremist have destroyed ancient shrines, banned music, and banned watching TV. They were also involved in human rights abuses and public stoning death is normal in jihadist rule. Now, jihadists have been driven out and sharian law lifted. The people of Mali are dancing and singing for the first time in months but the future of Mali remains unclear. Malian authority regularly broadcast radio messages over the past few days asking for citizens to report suspects to state authorities rather than take matters into their own hands. In the capital Bamako, government soldiers have put down a protest by troops loyal to the ex-president, and a latest Gao violence indicate the future instability of Mali. But positive signs of Mali intervention, within a limited time of military victory, saw several high-ranking Islamists arrested. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the desert operation against the Islamism group as a "real war". French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said France wanted a United Nations peacekeeping force to replace French forces deployed in Mali by April, incorporating troops offered by West African nations. France said it will start reducing its 4,600 military force in Mali in March and said it would take several weeks to complete planning for a UN force and to pass a Security Council resolution setting it up. Military analysts say: "It will be the place where Islamist militants are finally defeated or where they slip away to fight again". France called on the UN Security Council to send peacekeepers to Mali to take-over from French forces battling Al-Qaeda linked guerrillas and speed up the deployment of human rights observers. The force would support the stabilization of Mali after the French-Malian offensive and "help Malians to refound their country" with a "national pact" to end longstanding rivalry between the government and ethnic Tuaregs and Arabs. UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous also acknowledged objections raised by the Bamako transitional government but said a peacekeeping force is supported by the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and key UN members. European Union said it would step up its financial commitment to defeating the insurgents in Mali, pledging €50 million to support a contingent of African-led troops and promising as much as €250 million for development aid. The fighting overshadowed the arrival of 70 EU military trainers, the first of what is to be a 500-strong mission tasked with whipping the Malian army into shape. French General Francois Lecointre, leading the mission, said there was “a real need to rebuild the Malian army, which is in a state of advanced disrepair.” (Source: People Review Weekly Article)

France Mali Intervention: Responsible, yet risky move

Pramod Raj Sedhain French President Francois Hollande took a dramatic, hard and fast decisive action by intervening in Mali. This was followed after a plea for help from Mali’s Interim President, Dioncounda Traore. The risky military operation happened much early than expected – merely two hours of receiving letter from the Malian President. On January 11, France began its military intervention in Mali. France is one of the few major global powers with the capacity to direct sole military intervention in a foreign country. In this surprised move, French government has promised its public a short war. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius last weekend said the intervention just “a matter of weeks”. But, during the initial day of air raids, French Military was surprised at the level of sophistication of the Islamist forces, which was well-armed, well-trained, experienced and determined than expected. Extremists clearly posed an imminent threat to southern Mali to Bamako, the entire regional security as well as the international community. France immediately decided ground operation and leading the regional military blocks. Ten months ago, a military coup in Mali ended more than two-decade stretch of elections, which had established the country as a democracy. The coup created a power vacuum in the north which the Islamist rebels would fill and now facing possible overthrow by jihadists. They came with loads of weapons hauled out of a chaotic Libya. The area is a vast desert region in the northern half of Mali - roughly the size of France. Ground troops began to prevent al-Qaeda from turning a country twice the size of France. France has deployed 2,500 troops and 3,300 troops deployed to members of regional bloc ECOWAS (The Economic Community of West African States). Regional group of sixteen countries ECOWAS tackles the Operational, Political & negotiating tactic as well as boost a French-backed offensive in Mali against Islamist rebels. Regional and international players accelerated the deployment of MISMA (International Mission for Mali Assistance). Certainly, former colonial power, French force maintained a high moral and confident frontline of Operation Serval (ongoing operation). The small French special force and air power was vital to achieve success against the jihadists in one of the most risk missions. Intervention is a clear indication that Mali is not another Afghanistan. French Mirage and Rafale jets, Gazelle helicopters increasingly destroyed the jihadi fighters' moral and warfare psychology in the desert, which clearly showed French intervention, was creating a right track and course. French interest of intervention In the context of Mali, the French position was bolder than that of the United States. French President Hollande says he is battling a "terrorist threat" on Europe's doorstep. He says the campaign in northern Mali will take as long as necessary. This could not be an easy choice for France, but the French leadership had no option than to risk letting the rebels reach Bamako and establish their headquarters in the capital city, as the Taliban did in Kabul in 1996. Al Qaeda linked rebels have repeatedly warned it could be another Afghanistan. Even several other groups and power centres in Mali have said that's not going to be easy for France. But at the request of the President of Mali, and respecting the United Nations' charter, France took the challenge to eject the terrorists, who are brutalizing northern Mali. But the intervention indicated President Hollande's statesmanship that took to surprise to many people for his hard and fast-risk decision, which has gotten a political boost in France. French media have praised the President's move, which includes the dire need to protect some 6,000 French nationals. In the African regional context, France still maintains strategic and military influence in the region. Relying on this region for nearly all the uranium that fuels French nuclear power plants. France has its military bases in Senegal, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Chad and Djibouti. Some 12,000 French troops are currently engaged in peace-keeping operations around the world, nearly half are deployed in Africa. France has diversified interest in Africa where some 240,000 of its nationals live and 5 percent of France’s exports. France’s humanitarian intervention there saved thousands of lives and stabilized the region. French engagement in foreign intervention is not a new matter. It has a substantial military action and legacy of colonial history. Since 1960, France launched 50 military interventions in the African region. In 2011/12 France carried out air attack in Libya and Ivory Coast that led to change of regime. The central African government had asked France for military assistance but France has not given a clear response. Surprise attack, quick support The "surprised and silent" French intervention in Mali has rapidly changed the situation in Mali. Most of the Malians celebrated the arrival of French troops; regional military, international diplomatic and logistic support found the French led operation. They flew flags to welcome the EU, UN, AU, and French flags. Hundreds of people have been donating blood every day. The French military is getting direct support from Regional Country and logistical and other support from the US and EU brushing aside all suspucions. More to it, the UN Security Council has given a nod. This surely cannot be compared to Iraq or Afghanistan wars. Even the multi-national African force intervened in the French-backed northern Mali. West African nations have also scrambled their troops, with soldiers from Niger, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Nigeria being mobilized by the African bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The foreign-policy chiefs of the European Union Special Session approved a contingent of several hundred troops to train Mali’s armed forces. EU approved sending 450 to 500 non-combat troops, half of them trainers, to Mali as quickly as possible. The EU picked 50 years old Brigadier General François Lecointre to head the mission. He has served throughout Africa with French forces in Gabon, Ivory Coast, Somalia, Rwanda and the Central African Republic. The mission has a 15-month mandate and will cost €12.3 million. The mission should be formally launched mid-February once final operations plans are agreed. Challenges ahead Challenges are ahead. It might be difficult to set a timeframe. The battle is still under way in the operational area that is just more than the size of France. This kind of military action presents the danger but under these circumstances, French quick operation takes the leadership to a regional military action. French military intervention has blocked rebel fighters advancing from the north and alley force have been retaken some strategical towns from the rebels. Sophisticated and well-trained rebels have suggered heavy losses due to the French effective air power and special ground force operations. Another concern, however, is still unanswered. What if France doesn't achieve its goals? It's not only the Malian and entire regional stability it's far from African territory and expands the global necessary engagement of war on terrorism. French President Hollande has clearly said that the hostage crisis in Algeria is evidend that France's military intervention in Mali is justified. But resolving the crisis and restoring the political and social stability in Mali is not an easy task. Unity and stability will only improve the political, social and economic situation of this poor, land-locked West African country. Complicated political situation, weak administrative and security organ, lack of neutral judiciary system, poverty, ethnic and separatist tensions, drug trafficking, instability, weak social and national institutions, drought and corruption are major problems of Mali. Mali's stability may depend upon some kind of autonomy arrangement for the north (more than half of the territory). Therefore, so many players and power centers have been engaged in Mali's complex and complicated situation. Different interested wings and factions play a vital role of Mali crisis - for instance - extremist Islamist rebels, ethnic rebels, military, politicians, as well as regional and international powers in the country with a population of 15.8 million. The major ethnic groups in Mali are 50 percent Mande, 17 percent Fula, 12 percent Voltaic, 10 percent Tuareg, 6 percent Songhai, and rest 5 percent. Malian economy is highly dependant on gold mining and agricultural exports such as cotton. The country needs political stability and long term plan. Large landlocked territory with an area of 1,240,192 sq km, Mali is the world's 24th largest country. Regional border is another major challenge for security and regional stability. France's military intervention is a final test of the Malian and regional key players. Mali needs power-sharing arrangement, effective leadership, transition back to constitutional order and built Malian Army counter-terrorism capabilities. Source: People Review Weekly, Article)

Challenges ahead : western welfare state

Pramod Raj Sedhain (pramodsedhain@gmail.com) - At a time when most of the European countries have been reeling under economic crisis, France has still remained the world’s fifth-leading economic power and second largest economy in Europe. In recent years, some European countries, including Spain, Greece, Portugal, among others have adopted austerity measures. Despite the economic crisis in the continent, France, however, portrays a uniquely-cherished welfare state able to survive in the capitalist western world. In fact, over the past decade, France lost 700,000 industrial jobs, and the unemployment rate is now at 13-year high of about 10 per cent (compares competitor & main trading partner Germany with 5.4%). But, average wages in France are among the highest in Europe -- 20 per cent higher than Germany since the launch of the euro. French Socialist President Francois Hollande has promised to reduce France’s government deficit to below 3 per cent of economic output by next year from the current 4.5 per cent. Several analysts representing the capitalist countries have warned that France’s economic outlook would deteriorate if it failed to make deep spending cuts like Greece, Italy and Portugal. But, President Hollande is of the opinion that “austerity need not be Europe’s fate.” France has bucked the trend, abandoning austerity and protecting its social model. Despite all these, sustainability of the French welfare remains one of the major challenges to the French Socialist Government. The French government spends an estimated 30 per cent of the nation’s entire economic output on social services. In spite of the debt and deficits mounting, France hasn’t recorded a budget surplus since 1974. The pressure to control these expenses is becoming unbearable. Peeking into the French economy, till date, the policies have created a healthy, well-educated population with stable jobs at companies of international stature and an income level that ranks with the world’s highest. Recently, France’s public debt topped 90 percent of the value of everything produced in the economy in a year, well above the eurozone average of 60 percent (its debt level is not an enormous).French welfare-state programs have become entwined with Western nations’ economies, politics and societies, influencing how people spend and save, work and retire, educate children and care for elderly parents. Socialist government is also worried about France’s future welfare sustainability. This was founded on the noblest intentions -- to foster a more equitable society by ensuring that all, no matter what their social status, had access to the fruits and opportunities offered by an advanced economy – ranging from sound education, proper health care and a worry-free retirement. In many ways, its mission has been realized so far. France’s national health system is considered among the world’s best. Education System: The French government commits substantial resources to education with the goal to improve educational attainment. Some students even receive stipends to cover their rent. Health Care: The government provides free heath care to its citizens under the France’s modern Social Security system developed in 1945-46. The idea was to ensure health care and insurance for everyone to be covered by social insurance schemes or public assistance. Family Insurance System: Each family will receive the certain amount to a child until he/she is 16 years of age. Children with special needs are fully provided with the required amount. The Housing System: The government builds social housing and also provides housing subsidies for families in need. In the 1980’s, mortgage subsidies were introduced, which were intended to encourage home ownership. The Unemployment Insurance: The insurance is covered by a variety of separate insurance schemes. Those who are entitled to unemployment insurance receive 35 per cent of their previous income, among other sectors. Socialization of the economy As said earlier, France, as the world’s fifth-leading economic power & second largest economy in Europe, it has a long record of government nationalization of industry. The leading industrial sectors in France are telecommunications (including satellites), aerospace and defense, ship building (naval and specialist ships), pharmaceuticals, construction and civil engineering, chemicals, textiles, and automobile production. Although substantial progress had been made in the privatization process since the last decade, the government still own industries like aeronautics, defense, automobiles, energy, and telecommunications. The first elected National Assembly between November 1945 to April 1946 - after the Second World War - voted the nationalization of the Bank of France among four large deposit banks, public utilities, coal mines and two thirds of the leading insurance companies. In 1981, when Francois Mitterrand became the Socialist President of the Fifth Republic of France, his government put Socialist measures into the French economy. Mitterrand tried to create both job growth and wage growth by nationalizing some big industries. During that time above nationalized companies had a workforce of 800,000. The nationalization of 1981-82 involved seven of the largest twenty conglomerate industrial companies in France plus another five industrial companies. The iron and steel companies (already state-owned majority shares), electricity, gas, coal, railways and Paris transport; two French airlines were state-owned. By 1983, about one-third of French industries—among the 3,500 companies—came under the state control. However, there was some privatization during 1986–88, later resumed in 1993, with 21 state-owned industries, banks, and insurance companies scheduled to be sold. The successful automaker became a private company again in 1996, although the government retains about 15 per cent of its shares. All these indicate that French economy has been highly socialized. With the development of the European Market, certain nationalization programs as well as other economic reforms initiated by Mitterrand could not succeed as planned. However, challenges persist to keep up the economy high at a time when several European countries are reeling under economic crisis. Now, Mitterrand’s party – the French Socialist Party – is in the government. Obviously, the current circumstance is both an opportunity as well as challenge of the centre-left social-democratic socialist government to protect the country’s legacy, ideologically progressivism and welfare characteristics. (Source - People Review Weekly)