French victory in Mali: What next?

Pramod Raj Sedhain An average of 2.7 million euros is being spent per day in the ongoing "Operation Serval" since it was launched on January 11. The month-long operation saw massive air raid as well as ground offence. Al-Qaeda in Mali has no longer control of the northern region. But hundreds of militants are said to have been hiding in the vast and complicated area in the far northeast Mountain area of the country. They have been sheltering in one of Africa's harshest and least-known mountain ranges - the Adrar des Ifoghas. French-led military forces are still fighting to secure the north of the country. French fighter jets continue to pound the Militinic hideout Mountain area, including attacks on training camps and arms depots. The number of militants however remains in dispute, with estimates varying from a few hundred fighters to a few thousand. More than 6,000 troops have been promised by the West African Interim Force. There are also about 2,000 Chadian troops fighting alongside the French forces, who entered Mali on January 10. Mali's largest northern city witnessed blasts and street violence after a raid against Islamist insurgent guerrilla. Meanwhile, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a military checkpoint in Gao, wounding a soldier, an act that provided further evidence of the continued threat of the militants. Militants have not been completely flushed out of the whole territory. France's humanitarian mission dramatically increased the numbers of its boots on the ground attesting to the likelihood of greater French involvement. France said the recent Mali troop deployments weren't aimed at perpetuating Paris's grip on Africa, but at assisting allies. Operation in Mali counts 4,600 soldiers, 3,500 of which are serving on the ground. In the first week of beginning of the operation, the top US commander in Africa, General Carter Ham warned against "premature military action". He said immediate intervention would be likely to fail and set back the situation "even further". Some analysts, however, say the military intervention is not well-planned. After the third week of successful operation US analysis has seen a drastic change. US Defense minister Leon Panetta said that French forces rolled back Islamist militants in Mali "much faster" than the United States expected. "They have made tremendous progress; I give them a lot of credit," he added. French small special force gained surprise results in Mali. Many analysts said they were surprise with the French military victory over well-trained and heavily-armed Al Queda linked extremist fighters. But question remains: What might happen next in Mali? According to French Le Parisien daily, war in Mali had cost 70 million euros - an average of 2.7 million euros per day since it was launched on January 11. That figure compared to an average cost of 1.6 million euros per day for the intervention that toppled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and 1.4 million euros per day for the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. Le Parisien Daily quoted the defence minister as saying that "transportation of soldiers and military hardware had cost 50 million euros so far". France had mobilised 10,000 tons of military material in 15 days in Mali. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the war represented “a great effort” for France, which is struggling to balance its budget while tackling with the low growth and high unemployment. But, Mali advance shows France's military superpower and regional influence. The French and Chadian forces, with remnants of the Malian army, have since retaken northern towns from the Islamist rebels, who had enforced a brutal Sharia law there for 10 months. But they are now engaged in raids on the militant groups who have pulled back to desert and mountain hideouts. The four weeks of French Operation have ousted fighters allied with al-Qaeda from Mali's main northern towns. French President Francois Hollande was on a one-day trip to the Mali accompanied by his ministers for Defence, Foreign affairs and Development. President Hollande said, "Terrorism has been repelled but not wiped out". "I'm saying to you the fight has not yet ended, terrorist groups are weakened, they have suffered heavy losses, but have not disappeared. France will remain with you as long as it is necessary." He also made it clear that French troops will stay in Mali until rebels are defeated and democracy and human rights prevail. Hollande told Malians it was time for Africans to take the lead but that France would not abandon them. What next ? Once a major draw for Islamic scholars from around the world, the extremist have destroyed ancient shrines, banned music, and banned watching TV. They were also involved in human rights abuses and public stoning death is normal in jihadist rule. Now, jihadists have been driven out and sharian law lifted. The people of Mali are dancing and singing for the first time in months but the future of Mali remains unclear. Malian authority regularly broadcast radio messages over the past few days asking for citizens to report suspects to state authorities rather than take matters into their own hands. In the capital Bamako, government soldiers have put down a protest by troops loyal to the ex-president, and a latest Gao violence indicate the future instability of Mali. But positive signs of Mali intervention, within a limited time of military victory, saw several high-ranking Islamists arrested. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the desert operation against the Islamism group as a "real war". French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said France wanted a United Nations peacekeeping force to replace French forces deployed in Mali by April, incorporating troops offered by West African nations. France said it will start reducing its 4,600 military force in Mali in March and said it would take several weeks to complete planning for a UN force and to pass a Security Council resolution setting it up. Military analysts say: "It will be the place where Islamist militants are finally defeated or where they slip away to fight again". France called on the UN Security Council to send peacekeepers to Mali to take-over from French forces battling Al-Qaeda linked guerrillas and speed up the deployment of human rights observers. The force would support the stabilization of Mali after the French-Malian offensive and "help Malians to refound their country" with a "national pact" to end longstanding rivalry between the government and ethnic Tuaregs and Arabs. UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous also acknowledged objections raised by the Bamako transitional government but said a peacekeeping force is supported by the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and key UN members. European Union said it would step up its financial commitment to defeating the insurgents in Mali, pledging €50 million to support a contingent of African-led troops and promising as much as €250 million for development aid. The fighting overshadowed the arrival of 70 EU military trainers, the first of what is to be a 500-strong mission tasked with whipping the Malian army into shape. French General Francois Lecointre, leading the mission, said there was “a real need to rebuild the Malian army, which is in a state of advanced disrepair.” (Source: People Review Weekly Article)