French victory in Mali: What next?

Pramod Raj Sedhain An average of 2.7 million euros is being spent per day in the ongoing "Operation Serval" since it was launched on January 11. The month-long operation saw massive air raid as well as ground offence. Al-Qaeda in Mali has no longer control of the northern region. But hundreds of militants are said to have been hiding in the vast and complicated area in the far northeast Mountain area of the country. They have been sheltering in one of Africa's harshest and least-known mountain ranges - the Adrar des Ifoghas. French-led military forces are still fighting to secure the north of the country. French fighter jets continue to pound the Militinic hideout Mountain area, including attacks on training camps and arms depots. The number of militants however remains in dispute, with estimates varying from a few hundred fighters to a few thousand. More than 6,000 troops have been promised by the West African Interim Force. There are also about 2,000 Chadian troops fighting alongside the French forces, who entered Mali on January 10. Mali's largest northern city witnessed blasts and street violence after a raid against Islamist insurgent guerrilla. Meanwhile, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a military checkpoint in Gao, wounding a soldier, an act that provided further evidence of the continued threat of the militants. Militants have not been completely flushed out of the whole territory. France's humanitarian mission dramatically increased the numbers of its boots on the ground attesting to the likelihood of greater French involvement. France said the recent Mali troop deployments weren't aimed at perpetuating Paris's grip on Africa, but at assisting allies. Operation in Mali counts 4,600 soldiers, 3,500 of which are serving on the ground. In the first week of beginning of the operation, the top US commander in Africa, General Carter Ham warned against "premature military action". He said immediate intervention would be likely to fail and set back the situation "even further". Some analysts, however, say the military intervention is not well-planned. After the third week of successful operation US analysis has seen a drastic change. US Defense minister Leon Panetta said that French forces rolled back Islamist militants in Mali "much faster" than the United States expected. "They have made tremendous progress; I give them a lot of credit," he added. French small special force gained surprise results in Mali. Many analysts said they were surprise with the French military victory over well-trained and heavily-armed Al Queda linked extremist fighters. But question remains: What might happen next in Mali? According to French Le Parisien daily, war in Mali had cost 70 million euros - an average of 2.7 million euros per day since it was launched on January 11. That figure compared to an average cost of 1.6 million euros per day for the intervention that toppled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and 1.4 million euros per day for the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. Le Parisien Daily quoted the defence minister as saying that "transportation of soldiers and military hardware had cost 50 million euros so far". France had mobilised 10,000 tons of military material in 15 days in Mali. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the war represented “a great effort” for France, which is struggling to balance its budget while tackling with the low growth and high unemployment. But, Mali advance shows France's military superpower and regional influence. The French and Chadian forces, with remnants of the Malian army, have since retaken northern towns from the Islamist rebels, who had enforced a brutal Sharia law there for 10 months. But they are now engaged in raids on the militant groups who have pulled back to desert and mountain hideouts. The four weeks of French Operation have ousted fighters allied with al-Qaeda from Mali's main northern towns. French President Francois Hollande was on a one-day trip to the Mali accompanied by his ministers for Defence, Foreign affairs and Development. President Hollande said, "Terrorism has been repelled but not wiped out". "I'm saying to you the fight has not yet ended, terrorist groups are weakened, they have suffered heavy losses, but have not disappeared. France will remain with you as long as it is necessary." He also made it clear that French troops will stay in Mali until rebels are defeated and democracy and human rights prevail. Hollande told Malians it was time for Africans to take the lead but that France would not abandon them. What next ? Once a major draw for Islamic scholars from around the world, the extremist have destroyed ancient shrines, banned music, and banned watching TV. They were also involved in human rights abuses and public stoning death is normal in jihadist rule. Now, jihadists have been driven out and sharian law lifted. The people of Mali are dancing and singing for the first time in months but the future of Mali remains unclear. Malian authority regularly broadcast radio messages over the past few days asking for citizens to report suspects to state authorities rather than take matters into their own hands. In the capital Bamako, government soldiers have put down a protest by troops loyal to the ex-president, and a latest Gao violence indicate the future instability of Mali. But positive signs of Mali intervention, within a limited time of military victory, saw several high-ranking Islamists arrested. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described the desert operation against the Islamism group as a "real war". French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said France wanted a United Nations peacekeeping force to replace French forces deployed in Mali by April, incorporating troops offered by West African nations. France said it will start reducing its 4,600 military force in Mali in March and said it would take several weeks to complete planning for a UN force and to pass a Security Council resolution setting it up. Military analysts say: "It will be the place where Islamist militants are finally defeated or where they slip away to fight again". France called on the UN Security Council to send peacekeepers to Mali to take-over from French forces battling Al-Qaeda linked guerrillas and speed up the deployment of human rights observers. The force would support the stabilization of Mali after the French-Malian offensive and "help Malians to refound their country" with a "national pact" to end longstanding rivalry between the government and ethnic Tuaregs and Arabs. UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous also acknowledged objections raised by the Bamako transitional government but said a peacekeeping force is supported by the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and key UN members. European Union said it would step up its financial commitment to defeating the insurgents in Mali, pledging €50 million to support a contingent of African-led troops and promising as much as €250 million for development aid. The fighting overshadowed the arrival of 70 EU military trainers, the first of what is to be a 500-strong mission tasked with whipping the Malian army into shape. French General Francois Lecointre, leading the mission, said there was “a real need to rebuild the Malian army, which is in a state of advanced disrepair.” (Source: People Review Weekly Article)

France Mali Intervention: Responsible, yet risky move

Pramod Raj Sedhain French President Francois Hollande took a dramatic, hard and fast decisive action by intervening in Mali. This was followed after a plea for help from Mali’s Interim President, Dioncounda Traore. The risky military operation happened much early than expected – merely two hours of receiving letter from the Malian President. On January 11, France began its military intervention in Mali. France is one of the few major global powers with the capacity to direct sole military intervention in a foreign country. In this surprised move, French government has promised its public a short war. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius last weekend said the intervention just “a matter of weeks”. But, during the initial day of air raids, French Military was surprised at the level of sophistication of the Islamist forces, which was well-armed, well-trained, experienced and determined than expected. Extremists clearly posed an imminent threat to southern Mali to Bamako, the entire regional security as well as the international community. France immediately decided ground operation and leading the regional military blocks. Ten months ago, a military coup in Mali ended more than two-decade stretch of elections, which had established the country as a democracy. The coup created a power vacuum in the north which the Islamist rebels would fill and now facing possible overthrow by jihadists. They came with loads of weapons hauled out of a chaotic Libya. The area is a vast desert region in the northern half of Mali - roughly the size of France. Ground troops began to prevent al-Qaeda from turning a country twice the size of France. France has deployed 2,500 troops and 3,300 troops deployed to members of regional bloc ECOWAS (The Economic Community of West African States). Regional group of sixteen countries ECOWAS tackles the Operational, Political & negotiating tactic as well as boost a French-backed offensive in Mali against Islamist rebels. Regional and international players accelerated the deployment of MISMA (International Mission for Mali Assistance). Certainly, former colonial power, French force maintained a high moral and confident frontline of Operation Serval (ongoing operation). The small French special force and air power was vital to achieve success against the jihadists in one of the most risk missions. Intervention is a clear indication that Mali is not another Afghanistan. French Mirage and Rafale jets, Gazelle helicopters increasingly destroyed the jihadi fighters' moral and warfare psychology in the desert, which clearly showed French intervention, was creating a right track and course. French interest of intervention In the context of Mali, the French position was bolder than that of the United States. French President Hollande says he is battling a "terrorist threat" on Europe's doorstep. He says the campaign in northern Mali will take as long as necessary. This could not be an easy choice for France, but the French leadership had no option than to risk letting the rebels reach Bamako and establish their headquarters in the capital city, as the Taliban did in Kabul in 1996. Al Qaeda linked rebels have repeatedly warned it could be another Afghanistan. Even several other groups and power centres in Mali have said that's not going to be easy for France. But at the request of the President of Mali, and respecting the United Nations' charter, France took the challenge to eject the terrorists, who are brutalizing northern Mali. But the intervention indicated President Hollande's statesmanship that took to surprise to many people for his hard and fast-risk decision, which has gotten a political boost in France. French media have praised the President's move, which includes the dire need to protect some 6,000 French nationals. In the African regional context, France still maintains strategic and military influence in the region. Relying on this region for nearly all the uranium that fuels French nuclear power plants. France has its military bases in Senegal, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast, Chad and Djibouti. Some 12,000 French troops are currently engaged in peace-keeping operations around the world, nearly half are deployed in Africa. France has diversified interest in Africa where some 240,000 of its nationals live and 5 percent of France’s exports. France’s humanitarian intervention there saved thousands of lives and stabilized the region. French engagement in foreign intervention is not a new matter. It has a substantial military action and legacy of colonial history. Since 1960, France launched 50 military interventions in the African region. In 2011/12 France carried out air attack in Libya and Ivory Coast that led to change of regime. The central African government had asked France for military assistance but France has not given a clear response. Surprise attack, quick support The "surprised and silent" French intervention in Mali has rapidly changed the situation in Mali. Most of the Malians celebrated the arrival of French troops; regional military, international diplomatic and logistic support found the French led operation. They flew flags to welcome the EU, UN, AU, and French flags. Hundreds of people have been donating blood every day. The French military is getting direct support from Regional Country and logistical and other support from the US and EU brushing aside all suspucions. More to it, the UN Security Council has given a nod. This surely cannot be compared to Iraq or Afghanistan wars. Even the multi-national African force intervened in the French-backed northern Mali. West African nations have also scrambled their troops, with soldiers from Niger, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Nigeria being mobilized by the African bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The foreign-policy chiefs of the European Union Special Session approved a contingent of several hundred troops to train Mali’s armed forces. EU approved sending 450 to 500 non-combat troops, half of them trainers, to Mali as quickly as possible. The EU picked 50 years old Brigadier General François Lecointre to head the mission. He has served throughout Africa with French forces in Gabon, Ivory Coast, Somalia, Rwanda and the Central African Republic. The mission has a 15-month mandate and will cost €12.3 million. The mission should be formally launched mid-February once final operations plans are agreed. Challenges ahead Challenges are ahead. It might be difficult to set a timeframe. The battle is still under way in the operational area that is just more than the size of France. This kind of military action presents the danger but under these circumstances, French quick operation takes the leadership to a regional military action. French military intervention has blocked rebel fighters advancing from the north and alley force have been retaken some strategical towns from the rebels. Sophisticated and well-trained rebels have suggered heavy losses due to the French effective air power and special ground force operations. Another concern, however, is still unanswered. What if France doesn't achieve its goals? It's not only the Malian and entire regional stability it's far from African territory and expands the global necessary engagement of war on terrorism. French President Hollande has clearly said that the hostage crisis in Algeria is evidend that France's military intervention in Mali is justified. But resolving the crisis and restoring the political and social stability in Mali is not an easy task. Unity and stability will only improve the political, social and economic situation of this poor, land-locked West African country. Complicated political situation, weak administrative and security organ, lack of neutral judiciary system, poverty, ethnic and separatist tensions, drug trafficking, instability, weak social and national institutions, drought and corruption are major problems of Mali. Mali's stability may depend upon some kind of autonomy arrangement for the north (more than half of the territory). Therefore, so many players and power centers have been engaged in Mali's complex and complicated situation. Different interested wings and factions play a vital role of Mali crisis - for instance - extremist Islamist rebels, ethnic rebels, military, politicians, as well as regional and international powers in the country with a population of 15.8 million. The major ethnic groups in Mali are 50 percent Mande, 17 percent Fula, 12 percent Voltaic, 10 percent Tuareg, 6 percent Songhai, and rest 5 percent. Malian economy is highly dependant on gold mining and agricultural exports such as cotton. The country needs political stability and long term plan. Large landlocked territory with an area of 1,240,192 sq km, Mali is the world's 24th largest country. Regional border is another major challenge for security and regional stability. France's military intervention is a final test of the Malian and regional key players. Mali needs power-sharing arrangement, effective leadership, transition back to constitutional order and built Malian Army counter-terrorism capabilities. Source: People Review Weekly, Article)